Global trends in emerging infectious diseases
Kate E. Jones1, Nikkita G. Patel2, Marc A. Levy3, Adam Storeygard3,5, Deborah Balk3,5, John L. Gittleman4 & Peter Daszak2
1.
2.Consortium for Conservation Medicine, Wildlife
3.Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Earth Institute,
4.Odum School of Ecology,
5. Present addresses: Department of Economics,
Nature, 21 Feb. 2008, 451, pp. 990-993.
“….Resources to Counter Infectious Diseases Poorly Allocated, Study Shows. …”
Available online at: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v451/n7181/full/nature06536.html
“…..Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health1, 2, 3. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic.
EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease 'hotspots').
They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate….”
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