Tuesday, April 12, 2011

[EQ] Future Global Shocks: Pandemics

Future Global Shocks: Pandemics

Harvey Rubin, University of Pennsylvania

OECD/IFP Project on Future Global Shocks - IFP/WKP/FGS(2011)2



Available online PDF [87p.] at: http://bit.ly/fua7Zy

 

“”…..Classifying pandemics as a Future Global Shock is consistent with considering certain aspects of public health and infectious diseases as “existential threats” to human security as described in the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) of 1994 and reaffirmed in the 2003 UN Commission on Human Security.

 

The UNDP conceptualizes security as human-centric rather than the traditional state-centric and includes protection from the shocks that affect human safety and welfare, such as disease, hunger, unemployment, crime, social conflict, political repression and environmental hazards.

 

The consequence of such a definition, as Ole Weaver points out (Weaver 2009) is, “... that action according to the normal procedures will not be able to offset this in time, and therefore extraordinary measures are both needed and justified.” In this formulation, the nature of an existential threat depends in part on the particular threatened sector.

 

In considering the traditional national security threat, the survival of the sovereignty, territory and physical condition of the nation is at stake; to the environmental community, the sustainability of an ecosystem is at risk; to the economic sector, survival includes protecting the means of production.

 

To the medical community in general and especially to the public health and infectious diseases sectors, survival under a pandemic global shock clearly refers to taking every action to minimize morbidity and mortality as well as to minimize the effect of the pandemic on the economic, social and political stability of communities, nations and transnational organizations.

 

In this view, analyzing a pandemic future global shock must be informed by its effect on a broad range of key resources and critical infrastructure. Therefore, we argue that the global shock to public health in the form of a pandemic is unique among global shocks in having profound positive and negative externalities and interdependencies….

            Content

i.Introduction:

ii. How 2009 H1N1 emerged

iii. Are there existing management structures that help prepare, mitigate and respond in the event of a pandemic?

iv. What is the state of the art regarding risk analysis, potential impacts, existing models?

v. Risk assessment part 1:

vi. Risk assessment part 2: vulnerability and loss: how likely is a pandemic global shock and what could be the economic consequences?

vii. Research recommendation: designing the optimal strategy for risk communication –finding trust in informed leadership and the crowd.

VIII. Lessons from other outbreaks:

The Global HIV/AIDS Pandemic

SARS

IX. The knock-on effect of antibiotic resistance.

Who Suffers?

What is being done? Antibacterial agents

X. Lessons learned concerning control points:
     increasing societal resilience while maximizing resources prior to, during and after a pandemic. a proposed solution to the problem

x. Lessons learned concerning control points:
    increasing societal resilience while maximizing resources prior to, during and after a pandemic. a proposed solution to the problem

xi. An integrated approach to the problem

xii. lessons from the past

Recommendations

References .

 


Twitter http://twitter.com/eqpaho

 *      *     *
This message from the Pan American Health Organization, PAHO/WHO, is part of an effort to disseminate
information Related to: Equity; Health inequality; Socioeconomic inequality in health; Socioeconomic
health differentials; Gender; Violence; Poverty; Health Economics; Health Legislation; Ethnicity; Ethics;
Information Technology - Virtual libraries; Research & Science issues.  [DD/ KMC Area]
Washington DC USA

“Materials provided in this electronic list are provided "as is". Unless expressly stated otherwise, the findings
and interpretations included in the Materials are those of the authors and not necessarily of The Pan American
Health Organization PAHO/WHO or its country members”.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PAHO/WHO Website

Equity List - Archives - Join/remove: http://listserv.paho.org/Archives/equidad.html
Twitter http://twitter.com/eqpaho







IMPORTANT: This transmission is for use by the intended
recipient and it may contain privileged, proprietary or
confidential information. If you are not the intended
recipient or a person responsible for delivering this
transmission to the intended recipient, you may not
disclose, copy or distribute this transmission or take
any action in reliance on it. If you received this transmission
in error, please dispose of and delete this transmission.

Thank you.

[EQ] Health Care Utilization in the Elderly Mexican Population: Expenditures and Determinants

Health Care Utilization in the Elderly Mexican Population:
Expenditures and Determinants.


Gonzalez-Gonzalez C, Sanchez-Garcia S, Juarez-Cedillo T, Rosas-Carrasco O, Gutierrez-Robledo LM, Garcia-Pena C

BMC Public Health 2011, 11:192 (29 March 2011)

Available online at: http://bit.ly/hrqfDU

 

Background:
Worldwide population aging has been considered one of the most important demographic phenomena, and is frequently referred as a determinant of health costs and expenditures. These costs are an effect either of the aging process itself (social) or because of the increase that comes with older age (individual).

Objective:
To analyze health expenditures and its determinants in a sample of Mexican population, for three dimensions acute morbidity, ambulatory care and hospitalization focusing on different age groups, particularly the elderly.

Methods: A secondary analysis of the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT), 2006 was conducted. A descriptive analysis was performed to establish a health profile by socio-demographic characteristics.

Logistic regression models were estimated to determine the relation between acute morbidity, ambulatory care, hospitalization and age group; to establish the determinants of hospitalization among the population 60 years and older; and to determine hospitalization expenditures by age.

Results: Higher proportion of elderly reporting health problems was found. Average expenditures of hospitalization in households were $240.6 am dlls, whereas in households exclusively with elderly the expenditure was $308.9 am dlls, the highest among the considered age groups.

 

The multivariate analysis showed higher probability of being hospitalized among the elderly, but not for risks for acute morbidity and ambulatory care. Among the elderly, older age, being male or living in a city or in a metro area implied a higher probability of hospitalization during the last year, with chronic diseases playing a key role in hospitalization.

Conclusions: The conditions associated with age, such as chronic diseases, have higher weight than age itself; therefore, they are responsible for the higher expenditures reported. Conclusions point towards a differentiated use and intensity of health services depending on age. The projected increase in hospitalization and health care needs for this group requires immediate attention….”

 

 


Twitter http://twitter.com/eqpaho

 *      *     *
This message from the Pan American Health Organization, PAHO/WHO, is part of an effort to disseminate
information Related to: Equity; Health inequality; Socioeconomic inequality in health; Socioeconomic
health differentials; Gender; Violence; Poverty; Health Economics; Health Legislation; Ethnicity; Ethics;
Information Technology - Virtual libraries; Research & Science issues.  [DD/ KMC Area]
Washington DC USA

“Materials provided in this electronic list are provided "as is". Unless expressly stated otherwise, the findings
and interpretations included in the Materials are those of the authors and not necessarily of The Pan American
Health Organization PAHO/WHO or its country members”.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PAHO/WHO Website

Equity List - Archives - Join/remove: http://listserv.paho.org/Archives/equidad.html
Twitter http://twitter.com/eqpaho


 

 





IMPORTANT: This transmission is for use by the intended
recipient and it may contain privileged, proprietary or
confidential information. If you are not the intended
recipient or a person responsible for delivering this
transmission to the intended recipient, you may not
disclose, copy or distribute this transmission or take
any action in reliance on it. If you received this transmission
in error, please dispose of and delete this transmission.

Thank you.