Thursday, January 20, 2011

[EQ] Improving Global Health: Forecasting the Next 50 Years

PATTERNS OF POTENTIAL HUMAN PROGRESS

Improving Global Health: Forecasting the Next 50 Years - Volume 3 – 2011

The Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies is the home of the International Futures (IFs) computer simulation modeling project.

Website: http://bit.ly/eAtOHd

“……Improving Global Health is the third in a series of volumes—Patterns of Potential Human Progress—that uses the International Futures (IFs) simulation model to explore prospects for human development. The PPHP series is jointly published by the Pardee Center, Paradigm Publishers, and Oxford University Press India. The current volume sets out to tell a story of possible futures for the health of peoples across the world.

Questions explored by Improving Global Health include:

· What health outcomes might we expect given current patterns of human development?

· What opportunities exist for intervention and the achievement of alternate health futures?

· How might improved health futures affect broader economic, social, and political prospects of countries, regions, and the world?

The IFs system of models and its applications are continually evolving. Even so, its foundation continues to rest on two defining characteristics:

1. it is long-range (its forecasting horizon extends to the year 2100), and

2. it encompasses multiple domains of human and social systems for 183 countries (e.g., population, the economy, health, education, energy, agriculture, and aspects of sociopolitical systems) and the interaction effects among them.

Tables in each PPHP volume display dynamic forecasts in all of these domains for major world regions and 183 countries over the next 50 years.

PATTERNS OF POTENTIAL HUMAN PROGRESS

Improving Global Health: Forecasting the Next 50 Years

VOL UME 3

Content	File Type	Size
PPHP 3: Full Volume	PDF	3,726 kb
Preface and Table of Contents	PDF	142 kb
Chapter 1-Introduction	PDF	181 kb
Chapter 2-Understanding Health	PDF	296 kb
Chapter 3-Forecasting Global Health	PDF	371 kb
Chapter 4-The Current Path as it Seems to be Unfolding	PDF	295 kb
Chapter 5-Analysis of Selected Proximate Risk Factors	PDF	300 kb
Chapter 6-Analysis of Selected Environmental Risk Factors	PDF	375 kb
Chapter 7-Forward Linkages	PDF	319 kb
Chapter 8-Broadening and Integrating our Perspective	PDF	300 kb
Chapter 9-The Future of Global Education	PDF	127 kb
Appendices	PDF	58 kb
Bibliography	PDF	193 kb
Forecast Tables Introduction and Glossary	PDF	92 kb
Maps	PDF	216 kb
Forecast Tables Overview	PDF	55 kb
Forecast Tables	PDF	1,403 kb
Index	PDF	102 kb
Author Notes	PDF	154 kb

Barry B. Hughes, John Evans Professor

Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures

Josef Korbel School of International Studies - University of Denver, Denver, Colorado USA

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[EQ] Does the development of new medicinal products in the European Union address global and regional health concerns?

Does the development of new medicinal products in the European Union
address global and regional health concerns?

Ferrán Catalá-López,^1,2, Anna García-Altés,^1,3, Elena Álvarez-Martín⁴, Ricard Gènova-Maleras⁵ and Consuelo Morant-Ginestar⁶

¹Fundación Instituto de Investigación en Servicios de Salud, Valencia, Spain
²Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency (AEMPS), Ministry of Health and Social Policy, Madrid, Spain
³Catalan Agency for Health Information, Assessment and Quality (CAHIAQ), Barcelona, Spain
⁴Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Rey Juan Carlos University, Madrid, Spain
⁵Primary Care General Directorate, Regional Health Council, Madrid, Spain
⁶Department of Health Information Systems, Regional Health Council, Madrid, Spain

Population Health Metrics December 2010, 8:34doi:10.1186/1478-7954-8-34

Available online at: http://bit.ly/hFOIkt

"….Since 1995, approval for many new medicinal products has been obtained through a centralized procedure in the European Union. In recent years, the use of summary measures of population health has become widespread. We investigated whether efforts to develop innovative medicines are focusing on the most relevant conditions from a global public health perspective.

Methods

We reviewed the information on new medicinal products approved by centralized procedure from 1995 to 2009, information that is available to the public in the European Commission Register of medicinal products and the European Public Assessment Reports from the European Medicines Agency. Morbidity and mortality data were included for each disease group, according to the Global Burden of Disease project. We evaluated the association between authorized medicinal products and burden of disease measures based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the European Union and worldwide.

Results

We considered 520 marketing authorizations for medicinal products and 338 active ingredients. New authorizations were seen to increase over the period analyzed. There was a positive, high correlation between DALYs and new medicinal product development (ρ = 0.619, p = 0.005) in the European Union, and a moderate correlation for middle-low-income countries (ρ = 0.497, p = 0.030) and worldwide (ρ = 0.490, p = 0.033). The most neglected conditions at the European level (based on their attributable health losses) were neuropsychiatric diseases, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, sense organ conditions, and digestive diseases, while globally, they were perinatal conditions, respiratory infections, sense organ conditions, respiratory diseases, and digestive diseases.

Conclusions

We find that the development of new medicinal products is higher for some diseases than others. Pharmaceutical industry leaders and policymakers are invited to consider the implications of this imbalance by establishing work plans that allow for the setting of future priorities from a public health perspective…."

"Materials provided in this electronic list are provided "as is". Unless expressly stated otherwise, the findings
and interpretations included in the Materials are those of the authors and not necessarily of The Pan American
Health Organization PAHO/WHO or its country members".
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[EQ] The evolution, etiology and eventualities of the global health security regime

The evolution, etiology and eventualities of the global health security regime

Steven J. Hoffman^1-2¹Faculty of Law, Department of Political Science and Munk School of Global Affairs, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada

²Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

Health Policy and Planning 25(6): 510-522 – November 2010

Available at: http://bit.ly/gK4uAM

“……Attention to global health security governance is more important now than ever before. Scientists predict that a possible influenza pandemic could affect 1.5 billion people, cause up to 150 million deaths and leave US$3 trillion in economic damages. A public health emergency in one country is now only hours away from affecting many others.

METHODS:
Using regime analysis from political science, the principles, norms, rules and decision-making procedures by which states govern health security are examined in the historical context of their punctuated evolution. This methodology illuminates the catalytic agents of change, distributional consequences and possible future orders that can help to better inform progress in this area.

FINDINGS:
Four periods of global health security governance are identified.
- The first is characterized by unilateral quarantine regulations (1377–1851),
- the second by multiple sanitary conferences (1851–92),
- the third by several international sanitary conventions and international health organizations (1892–1946) and
- the fourth by the hegemonic leadership of the World Health Organization (1946–????).

This final regime, like others before it, is challenged by globalization (e.g. limitations of the new International Health Regulations), changing diplomacy (e.g. proliferation of global health security organizations), new tools (e.g. global health law, human rights and health diplomacy) and shock-activated vulnerabilities (e.g. bioterrorism and avian/swine influenza).
This understanding, in turn, allows us to appreciate the impact of this evolving regime on class, race and gender, as well as to consider four possible future configurations of power, including greater authority for the World Health Organization, a concert of powers, developing countries and civil society organizations.

CONCLUSION:
This regime analysis allows us to understand the evolution, etiology and eventualities of the global health security regime, which is essential for national and international health policymakers, practitioners and academics to know where and how to act effectively in preparation for tomorrow’s challenges…..”





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