Tuesday, June 23, 2009

[EQ] NIH funding trajectories and their correlations with U.S. health dynamics from 1950 to 2004

NIH funding trajectories and their correlations with U.S. health dynamics from 1950 to 2004


Kenneth G. Manton a,1, Xi-Liang Gua, Gene Lowrimore a, Arthur Ullian b, and H. Dennis Tolley c

aArts and Sciences, Duke University, Box 90408, 331 Trent Drive, Durham, NC 27708; bNational Council of Spinal Cord Injury Association, Boston, MA 02458; and cDepartment of Statistics, Brigham Young University, Department of Statistics, Provo, UT -  Communicated by Robert W. Fogel, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL.


PNAS June 22, 2009, doi:10.1073/pnas.0905104106

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences


Available online at:

“…..To determine optimal future National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding levels, the longitudinal correlation of the level of investment in NIH research with population changes in the risk of specific diseases should be analyzed. This is because NIH research is the primary source of new therapies and treatments for major chronic diseases, many of which were viewed as relatively untreatable in the 1950s. NIH research is also important in developing preventative and screening strategies to support public health interventions.


These correlations are examined 1938 to 2004 for 4 major chronic diseases [cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke, cancer, and diabetes] and the NIH institutes responsible for research for those diseases.


This analysis shows consistent non-linear temporal correlations of funding to mortality rates across diseases. The economic implications of this are discussed assuming that improved health at later ages will allow projected declines in the rate of growth of the U.S. labor force to be partly offset by a higher rate of labor force participation in the U.S. elderly population due to reduced chronic disease risks and functional impairment…”



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