Making Chronic Conditions Count:
Hypertension, Stroke, Coronary Heart Disease, Diabetes.
A systematic approach to estimating and forecasting population prevalence on the
The
Prepared by: Kevin P Balanda, Steve Barron,
Available online PDF [88p.] at: http://bit.ly/9ikccD
Technical Supplement PDF [28p.] at: http://bit.ly/cwLVMK :
“…..This report contains estimates and forecasts of the population prevalence1 of four chronic conditions: hypertension, coronary heart disease (angina and heart attack), stroke and diabetes (Type 1 and Type 2 combined). It shows how their prevalence varies across the island and what change is expected between 2007, 2015 and 2020.
Chronic conditions are responsible for a significant proportion of early deaths. They reduce quality of life in many of the adults living with them, represent substantial financial costs to patients and the health and social care system, and cause a significant loss of productivity to the economy.
Although the population is living longer, chronic conditions have reduced the quality of the extra years that have been gained. There is evidence in the
The burden of conditions is expected to rise because our population will grow, it will age and some risk factors such as obesity will become more common. Unless we address this growing burden we may continue to add more years to our lives without adding more life to those years.
Chronic conditions occur more frequently among the poor and vulnerable. A range of interrelated factors including the social determinants of health such as poverty, unemployment and the environment, smoking, alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity are established risk factors for chronic conditions. These risk factors are distributed unevenly across society….”
Contents
Foreword
Executive Summary
1. Introduction 15
2. Estimating and Forecasting Prevalence
3. Hypertension
4. Angina and Heart Attack (CHD)
5. Stroke
6. Diabetes
7. Recommendations
References
Technical Supplement:
Contents
INTRODUCTION
HOW THE MODELS WORK
STEP 1: Estimating risk
STEP 2: Estimating and forecasting the distribution of risk
STEP 3: Obtaining estimated and forecasted prevalence
REFERENCES
APPENDIX 1: Risk factors included in the hypertension, coronary heart disease and stroke models
APPENDIX 2: Validation of hypertension, coronary heart disease and stroke models
APPENDIX 3: Deprivation measures used from
http://www.inispho.org/files/file/Making%20Chronic%20Conditions.pdf
http://www.inispho.org/files/file/Making%20Chronic%20Conditions%20Count%20Tech%20Supp.pdf
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