The future need for care
Results from the LEV project
Available PDF [52p.] online at: http://bit.ly/aUXawv
“…..By 2050 the proportion of elderly people in the population is expected to have increased from the present level of 17 per cent to 25 per cent.
The population is ageing, health is improving and life expectancy is rising. This is a positive trend to which society must adapt.
The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs has therefore compiled a description of how demographics, health, morbidity and mortality will develop over the next 40 years, and what impact this has on the need for health and elderly care.
A unique model is used to simulate how a statistically representative population of 300 000 individuals ages year by year up to 2050.
The result is summarised in this document.
The fact that we are living longer and that our health is improving is positive. The results of the simulations show that it is possible to meet the needs of the ageing population for health care and care of the elderly, but that strategic and resolute efforts are required in several areas….”
Content
Summary
Introduction
Health in an ageing population
More younger and elderly people in working age
Simulation of the ageing and care consumption of individuals
The dynamic model SESIM
Increased average life expectancy according to Statistics Sweden projection
Three health scenarios
Consumption of health and elderly care
Cost of health and elderly care increases with age
Costs of health care per capita
Total consumption of care is increasing
Higher costs with raised level of ambition and technological progress
Increased growth contributes to funding
Share of care of the elderly in GDP is growing
Total share of health and elderly care in GDP is increasing
Differences between the scenarios
Increasing need for staff
Shortage of staff in elderly care in 2030
Revenue through hours worked, tax and charges
More hours worked improves the situation regarding means of support
Increased funding through charges?
A small group accounts for half the cost of care
Large differences in cost of care from a life perspective
All elderly people receive health care but one in three do not receive elderly care
Tax funding
Better health, fewer impediments and greater efficiency
Better health results in both health gains and lower costs
Increased proportion of elderly people with good health and better mobility
Preventive and health-promoting measures
Reducing the incidence of dementia
Preventing and delaying strokes
Common risk factors
Healthy ageing
Lifestyle habits of the elderly
There are many ways of preventing
Reduced suffering as a result of fewer accidental falls
Reducing impediments
Efficient health and elderly care
Good quality in health and elderly care
Efficiency can be improved
Wide spread of cost
More measures can be taken to improve efficiency
Reduced service supply does not solve the fundamental problems
Improved efficiency instead of quick cuts
Large reorganisations are possible and have taken place
What if...!?
Information and information technology
Participation and co-production
Remote care and information
Control and follow-up
Large changes with new technology
The scientific frontiers are moving quickly
A cure for dementia?
Reducing impediments through accessibility and the right assistive devices
New ideas are needed
Every little helps...
Conclusions and discussion
Efficiencies, better health and more hours worked
Applying current knowledge
Reduced need for health care and elderly care
Reduced impediments through assistive devices and accessibility
New ideas, research breakthroughs and innovations
Effective forecasts have to prove wrong
More analyses are needed
The future need for care
References
Footnotes
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