Thursday, November 11, 2010

[EQ] The future need for care

The future need for care
Results from the LEV project

Sweden: Ministry of Health and Social Affairs- October 2010

Available PDF [52p.] online at: http://bit.ly/aUXawv

“…..By 2050 the proportion of elderly people in the population is expected to have increased from the present level of 17 per cent to 25 per cent.

The population is ageing, health is improving and life expectancy is rising. This is a positive trend to which society must adapt.

 

The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs has therefore compiled a description of how demographics, health, morbidity and mortality will develop over the next 40 years, and what impact this has on the need for health and elderly care.
A unique model is used to simulate how a statistically representative population of 300 000 individuals ages year by year up to 2050.
The result is summarised in this document.

 

The fact that we are living longer and that our health is improving is positive. The results of the simulations show that it is possible to meet the needs of the ageing population for health care and care of the elderly, but that strategic and resolute efforts are required in several areas….”

 

Content

Summary

Introduction

Health in an ageing population

More younger and elderly people in working age

Simulation of the ageing and care consumption of individuals

The dynamic model SESIM

Increased average life expectancy according to Statistics Sweden projection

Three health scenarios

Consumption of health and elderly care

Cost of health and elderly care increases with age

Costs of health care per capita

Total consumption of care is increasing

Higher costs with raised level of ambition and technological progress

Increased growth contributes to funding

Share of care of the elderly in GDP is growing

Total share of health and elderly care in GDP is increasing

Differences between the scenarios

Increasing need for staff

Shortage of staff in elderly care in 2030

Revenue through hours worked, tax and charges

More hours worked improves the situation regarding means of support

Increased funding through charges?

A small group accounts for half the cost of care

Large differences in cost of care from a life perspective

All elderly people receive health care but one in three do not receive elderly care

Tax funding

Better health, fewer impediments and greater efficiency

Better health results in both health gains and lower costs

Increased proportion of elderly people with good health and better mobility

Preventive and health-promoting measures

Reducing the incidence of dementia

Preventing and delaying strokes

Common risk factors

Healthy ageing

Lifestyle habits of the elderly

There are many ways of preventing

Reduced suffering as a result of fewer accidental falls

Reducing impediments

Efficient health and elderly care

Good quality in health and elderly care

Efficiency can be improved

Wide spread of cost

More measures can be taken to improve efficiency

Reduced service supply does not solve the fundamental problems

Improved efficiency instead of quick cuts

Large reorganisations are possible and have taken place

What if...!?

Information and information technology

Participation and co-production

Remote care and information

Control and follow-up

Large changes with new technology

The scientific frontiers are moving quickly

A cure for dementia?

Reducing impediments through accessibility and the right assistive devices

New ideas are needed

Every little helps...

Conclusions and discussion

Efficiencies, better health and more hours worked

Applying current knowledge

Reduced need for health care and elderly care

Reduced impediments through assistive devices and accessibility

New ideas, research breakthroughs and innovations

Effective forecasts have to prove wrong

More analyses are needed

The future need for care

References

Footnotes

 

 

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